This (http://bit.ly/eR9hmH) is a short blog on health insurance in the
US.
The situation regarding health insurance in the US is complicated, but
the main fact is that health insurance through companies is subsidized
by tax breaks. The costs of health insurance have sky-rocketed. Even
with tax breaks, companies are opting for less expensive insurance for
them, with higher deductibles and so on. So, your company decides what
insurance you get.
My son had a trip to an ER in Ecuador for an asthma attack. It ended
up costing less than $200. The cost in the US for equivalent service
would be 10-20X more.
Brad
30 December 2010
States hold universities accountable for graduation rates
I feel like Alaistair Cooke, reporting on US news to people outside
the US.
There are a lot of colleges controlled by state governments. They're
called "public universities."
Sometimes this is good. For instance, in regards to First Amendment
rights. The First Amendment protections applied to Federal Government
actions. A subsequent Amendment extended these rights or protections
to State and Local government actions. Court decisions have broadened
the protections to include public universities. So, a student
attending a public university in the US has First Amendment
protections.
The bad side of this is that public universities are subject to the
whims of government actions, which are often put into place without
considering the unintended consequences. It's not tough to imagine
what the unintended consequences of this action (http://n.pr/fRHgdn)
will be.
Aren't students responsible for their own graduation?
Brad
the US.
There are a lot of colleges controlled by state governments. They're
called "public universities."
Sometimes this is good. For instance, in regards to First Amendment
rights. The First Amendment protections applied to Federal Government
actions. A subsequent Amendment extended these rights or protections
to State and Local government actions. Court decisions have broadened
the protections to include public universities. So, a student
attending a public university in the US has First Amendment
protections.
The bad side of this is that public universities are subject to the
whims of government actions, which are often put into place without
considering the unintended consequences. It's not tough to imagine
what the unintended consequences of this action (http://n.pr/fRHgdn)
will be.
Aren't students responsible for their own graduation?
Brad
Riskiness
I like this story (http://n.pr/hWrSbf ) about the Environmental
Protection Agency and Dioxin because it concerns risk.
There's risk you can identify beforehand and risk that sneaks up on
you.
When you try to identify risk, you use tests. These tests will have
false positives and false negatives. In other words, you're going to
identify some things as risky that aren't, and vice versa.
Once you identify a risk, you have to gauge how severe is the risk. In
other words, what is the risk that something bad will happen to you,
how severe are the bad things that could happen to you, and what is
the overall risk you calculate from those numbers?
It's in the nature of government bureaucracies to use tests that have
a high false positive rate, and to act first, think later. So, you end
up with plenty of examples like dioxin, like saccharin, ...
Brad
Protection Agency and Dioxin because it concerns risk.
There's risk you can identify beforehand and risk that sneaks up on
you.
When you try to identify risk, you use tests. These tests will have
false positives and false negatives. In other words, you're going to
identify some things as risky that aren't, and vice versa.
Once you identify a risk, you have to gauge how severe is the risk. In
other words, what is the risk that something bad will happen to you,
how severe are the bad things that could happen to you, and what is
the overall risk you calculate from those numbers?
It's in the nature of government bureaucracies to use tests that have
a high false positive rate, and to act first, think later. So, you end
up with plenty of examples like dioxin, like saccharin, ...
Brad
The Dutch Sandwich
The Dutch sandwich shows up in the Dilbert cartoon:
http://ping.fm/Dpt4e
Bloomberg Businessweek explains the tax strategy: http://bit.ly/eVxk7w.
Abraham Briloff, an emeritus Professor of Accounting I hugely admire,
agrees with Dilbert and says these strategies are evil.
Judge Learned Hand says: "Anyone may so arrange his affairs that his
taxes shall be as low as possible; he is not bound to choose that
pattern which will best pay the Treasury; there is not even a
patriotic duty to increase one's taxes." In other words, if it's
legal, it's OK.
I am with Learned Hand on this one, but the debate will be
interesting.
Brad
http://ping.fm/Dpt4e
Bloomberg Businessweek explains the tax strategy: http://bit.ly/eVxk7w.
Abraham Briloff, an emeritus Professor of Accounting I hugely admire,
agrees with Dilbert and says these strategies are evil.
Judge Learned Hand says: "Anyone may so arrange his affairs that his
taxes shall be as low as possible; he is not bound to choose that
pattern which will best pay the Treasury; there is not even a
patriotic duty to increase one's taxes." In other words, if it's
legal, it's OK.
I am with Learned Hand on this one, but the debate will be
interesting.
Brad
Happiness and Suicide
I have been interested in the happiness literature ever since I found
out that citizens of Denmark consistently score among the happiest in
the world. Totally baffling.
This is a short blog post (http://bit.ly/e0Crw3) reports an article
that finds that suicide rates and happiness scores correlate in
geographic areas.
Brad
out that citizens of Denmark consistently score among the happiest in
the world. Totally baffling.
This is a short blog post (http://bit.ly/e0Crw3) reports an article
that finds that suicide rates and happiness scores correlate in
geographic areas.
Brad
Marginal Utility
The Austrian economists emphasize the individual's marginal utility:
in other words a person will evaluate the value of something to them.
So two people will make a deal based on differences in marginal
utilities. The end result is both gain from the deal.
Anyway, here is the concept of marginal utility in action: http://bit.ly/hvYa5h.
Brad
in other words a person will evaluate the value of something to them.
So two people will make a deal based on differences in marginal
utilities. The end result is both gain from the deal.
Anyway, here is the concept of marginal utility in action: http://bit.ly/hvYa5h.
Brad
27 December 2010
Tuberculosis in Prisons
http://bit.ly/eD5mBA.
A tuberculosis (TB) epidemic would be very very bad.
Antibiotic resistant TB is a major problem.
The concern is that resistant organisms are forming as a result of
social processes: prisons and HIV infections.
The US has a good proportion of its population in prisons. I wonder if
the US is 1st in the world now.
Brad
A tuberculosis (TB) epidemic would be very very bad.
Antibiotic resistant TB is a major problem.
The concern is that resistant organisms are forming as a result of
social processes: prisons and HIV infections.
The US has a good proportion of its population in prisons. I wonder if
the US is 1st in the world now.
Brad
Real Estate cycle
I remember Charles-Henry Monchau said "The real estate cycle is 9 years."
This is data, mainly from Ireland but also from other areas in the EU,
about the downward plunge of the housing cycle: http://bit.ly/flqagq.
Brad
This is data, mainly from Ireland but also from other areas in the EU,
about the downward plunge of the housing cycle: http://bit.ly/flqagq.
Brad
Economic cycles
Here is an article that finds that cycles are real: http://bit.ly/hwUT8i.
They do a spectral analysis of GDP data. In other words, they
transform data in a time series to a spectrum and find cycles,
significant statistically speaking.
There are reasons to think that cycles might not be real.
There's the Slutsky proposition (getting "slut" and "proposition" in
the same name supposedly helps as a mnemonic device), which states
that "the moving average of a random series fluctuates." In other
words, a simple mathematical manuever on a random series can produce
meaningful-looking cycles.
There's the cluster illusion, where humans, given random data, will
think it's not random and will try to ascribe meaning to the data.
There's the efficient market hypothesis, which states that, if a
market has predictable cycles, people will act to remove the cycles.
Brad
They do a spectral analysis of GDP data. In other words, they
transform data in a time series to a spectrum and find cycles,
significant statistically speaking.
There are reasons to think that cycles might not be real.
There's the Slutsky proposition (getting "slut" and "proposition" in
the same name supposedly helps as a mnemonic device), which states
that "the moving average of a random series fluctuates." In other
words, a simple mathematical manuever on a random series can produce
meaningful-looking cycles.
There's the cluster illusion, where humans, given random data, will
think it's not random and will try to ascribe meaning to the data.
There's the efficient market hypothesis, which states that, if a
market has predictable cycles, people will act to remove the cycles.
Brad
The 1970s
Murray Edelman wrote this in in the 1970s: http://bit.ly/hvAfUs.
Although the article, like me, is a product of the US in the 1970s,
Edelman makes the point that language, one's choice of words, is in
itself biased.
Brad
Although the article, like me, is a product of the US in the 1970s,
Edelman makes the point that language, one's choice of words, is in
itself biased.
Brad
Human Rights
The US concept of human rights goes back to the Declaration of
Independence, which states "endowed by their Creator with certain
inalienable rights,... life, liberty, and the pursuit of
happiness..."
The Rights are enumerated in the Amendments to the Constitution. One
thing the First Amendment guarantees is Freedom of Religion. In other
words, the government should not prescribe what religion a person
should practice.
Here's Gene Policinski on a practical case involving Freedom of
Religion:
http://ping.fm/BVXgE
Brad
Independence, which states "endowed by their Creator with certain
inalienable rights,... life, liberty, and the pursuit of
happiness..."
The Rights are enumerated in the Amendments to the Constitution. One
thing the First Amendment guarantees is Freedom of Religion. In other
words, the government should not prescribe what religion a person
should practice.
Here's Gene Policinski on a practical case involving Freedom of
Religion:
http://ping.fm/BVXgE
Brad
Search Funds
I'd never heard of Search Funds. They are for entrepreneurs. The idea
is that, for entrepreneurs, it is sometimes easier to buy a company
rather than start a company.
Probably some of you are involved in Search Funds.
Here's information:
http://ping.fm/VHwTt
Brad
is that, for entrepreneurs, it is sometimes easier to buy a company
rather than start a company.
Probably some of you are involved in Search Funds.
Here's information:
http://ping.fm/VHwTt
Brad
Books by Martin Osborne and Ariel Rubinstein
If you register at this site (http://ping.fm/Nj0W3
books/index.php/index), you can download, for free, books by Ariel
Rubinstein and Martin Osborne.
Brad
books/index.php/index), you can download, for free, books by Ariel
Rubinstein and Martin Osborne.
Brad
24 December 2010
Book Reviews, Book Notes, Literary Criticism
Here are book notes on the book Why Smart Executives Fail:
http://ping.fm/XuZ5i
It is a good idea to write or at least to consider writing a book review or book notes after reading a book.
Regarding book reviews, here are clips from the movie Metropolitan
(http://ping.fm/aQT8o)
Key quotes:
“I prefer good literary criticism”: 5:20 to 6:15.
“For me, ceasing to exist is failure”: 2:25 to 3:00.
“Downward social mobility”: 3:00 to 4:15.
“It still means having your mother go out on dates”: 0:00 to 0:40.
The movie is chock-full of quotable moments.
Brad
http://ping.fm/XuZ5i
It is a good idea to write or at least to consider writing a book review or book notes after reading a book.
Regarding book reviews, here are clips from the movie Metropolitan
(http://ping.fm/aQT8o)
Key quotes:
“I prefer good literary criticism”: 5:20 to 6:15.
“For me, ceasing to exist is failure”: 2:25 to 3:00.
“Downward social mobility”: 3:00 to 4:15.
“It still means having your mother go out on dates”: 0:00 to 0:40.
The movie is chock-full of quotable moments.
Brad
Christmas Songs (Jazz, mostly)
Duke Ellington Orchestra – Jingle Bells http://bit.ly/g6Kf4e
Eartha Kitt – Santa Baby http://bit.ly/gzAch5
Doris Day – White Christmas http://bit.ly/eWr7TO
Ella Fitzgerald – Sleigh Ride http://bit.ly/g0Mkzf
Vincent Guaraldi Trio – O Tannenbaum http://bit.ly/fHdvKO
Brad
Eartha Kitt – Santa Baby http://bit.ly/gzAch5
Doris Day – White Christmas http://bit.ly/eWr7TO
Ella Fitzgerald – Sleigh Ride http://bit.ly/g0Mkzf
Vincent Guaraldi Trio – O Tannenbaum http://bit.ly/fHdvKO
Brad
21 December 2010
A.G. Gaston
The baseball manager Leo Durocher said, "Nice guys finish last."
A. G. Gaston was a nice guy who finished first (http://n.pr/hOacj3).
He was involved in the change in racial attitudes in the South (in
Birmingham, Alabama, where I lived 1987-1994) during the Martin Luther
King days in the 1960s.
Brad
A. G. Gaston was a nice guy who finished first (http://n.pr/hOacj3).
He was involved in the change in racial attitudes in the South (in
Birmingham, Alabama, where I lived 1987-1994) during the Martin Luther
King days in the 1960s.
Brad
Peer Review
Randomness, or luck, plays a large factor: http://bit.ly/iazE8O.
People perceive randomness as unfair: http://bit.ly/gEzG6H.
Brad
People perceive randomness as unfair: http://bit.ly/gEzG6H.
Brad
Costs of driving and owning a car
in various US cities, in a graph: http://bit.ly/gZe859.
You'd have to factor in public transportation, a big consideration in
New York City.
There's data concerning costs of flying in and out of various cities,
but I don't know where to access that.
It reminds me of our discussions in Economics concerning corruption
and where to locate a company.
Brad
You'd have to factor in public transportation, a big consideration in
New York City.
There's data concerning costs of flying in and out of various cities,
but I don't know where to access that.
It reminds me of our discussions in Economics concerning corruption
and where to locate a company.
Brad
20 December 2010
Chess-type of economic analysis
The idea is to determine where you are and then figure out what
happens when you try to move from there.
This is Michael Munger looking at political science: http://bit.ly/fyFSey.
This is looking at Malthus from an equilibrium standpoint using the
same type of analysis: http://bit.ly/i5maJP.
Brad
happens when you try to move from there.
This is Michael Munger looking at political science: http://bit.ly/fyFSey.
This is looking at Malthus from an equilibrium standpoint using the
same type of analysis: http://bit.ly/i5maJP.
Brad
Ideacide
Funny story: http://bit.ly/dECQ2w.
I know Matthew May as author of The Elegant Solution, a book about
Toyota.
Brad
I know Matthew May as author of The Elegant Solution, a book about
Toyota.
Brad
18 December 2010
Christmas in the Mall
http://ping.fm/qKRaN
It's the Hallelujah chorus. People are supposed to stand,
traditionally.
This is from my friend, Jay Canchola. I don't know where he gets these things.
Brad
It's the Hallelujah chorus. People are supposed to stand,
traditionally.
This is from my friend, Jay Canchola. I don't know where he gets these things.
Brad
13 December 2010
I'll pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today
This is Wimpy's famous line, from the Popeye comic strip.
David Friedman (http://bit.ly/hr8QyH) points out it's not just Wimpy,
but also politicians who would like to make promises but put the debts
off to the next administration.
Brad
David Friedman (http://bit.ly/hr8QyH) points out it's not just Wimpy,
but also politicians who would like to make promises but put the debts
off to the next administration.
Brad
Is the awareness test relevant?
The awareness test (http://bit.ly/fr2qoX) and change blindness (http://
bit.ly/g5laiC) are simple and popular. The tests seem to imply that
most of the time we walk around unaware and that there are gorillas
around (we just don't see them).
My question is: Is the test relevant to everyday life? In other words,
if you meet a person who says "I see a gorilla," what are the chance
that the person is correct, versus the chance that he's crazy?
I don't know. I guess, if you're in a business that is subject to
frequent surprises, you've got to think he might be correct.
Brad
bit.ly/g5laiC) are simple and popular. The tests seem to imply that
most of the time we walk around unaware and that there are gorillas
around (we just don't see them).
My question is: Is the test relevant to everyday life? In other words,
if you meet a person who says "I see a gorilla," what are the chance
that the person is correct, versus the chance that he's crazy?
I don't know. I guess, if you're in a business that is subject to
frequent surprises, you've got to think he might be correct.
Brad
Are books cheap now?
This (http://bit.ly/fRVNSL) is a list of business books for sale from
Zubal Books. It's probably US, so it would ship from the US. I would
guess that there might be a similar company for Europe. The books are
mainly English, it looks like to me.
It's not an easy site to navigate. I went to Business or Economics,
set it to list books from earliest to now. There was a 4th edition of
Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. Carl Schurz's Honest Money and Work
(was a follow-up on Dishonest Money and Work?).
A lot of the books are $50 or less. It looks to me like people are
selling their books and prices are low, but it's not my area...
Brad
Zubal Books. It's probably US, so it would ship from the US. I would
guess that there might be a similar company for Europe. The books are
mainly English, it looks like to me.
It's not an easy site to navigate. I went to Business or Economics,
set it to list books from earliest to now. There was a 4th edition of
Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations. Carl Schurz's Honest Money and Work
(was a follow-up on Dishonest Money and Work?).
A lot of the books are $50 or less. It looks to me like people are
selling their books and prices are low, but it's not my area...
Brad
A life among the econ
William Allen's story of academic life in the UCLA Department of
Economics. http://bit.ly/evYVND.
There's a lot of good stories here: journals that won't publish your
work unless you stick in some mathematical formulas, the trials of
being a department chief, etc. He tells the stories well. I am not
sure that he gets the moral of the story right, though.
Brad
Economics. http://bit.ly/evYVND.
There's a lot of good stories here: journals that won't publish your
work unless you stick in some mathematical formulas, the trials of
being a department chief, etc. He tells the stories well. I am not
sure that he gets the moral of the story right, though.
Brad
Cheating
Cheating in a business school class: http://bit.ly/eve6vz.
Cheating in Association football: http://bbc.in/eiVbos.
Brad
Cheating in Association football: http://bbc.in/eiVbos.
Brad
12 December 2010
Optimization in business school
They're studying optimization at MIT Sloan. You can download a program
called AMPL.
http://bit.ly/hVODcZ
Brad
called AMPL.
http://bit.ly/hVODcZ
Brad
Berserker equilibrium
The idea behind berserker equilibrium is that there is a multiple-
players prisoners' game going on. The game payoffs are set so that, if
you make a move, everyone else will kill you. Your rational play is
not only to refrain from making a move, but to be so quiet no one else
knows you even exist to play the game. So everybody stays silent.
http://bit.ly/eZTCsE
The concept comes from a set of science fiction stories by Fred
Saberhagen: http://bit.ly/fjDtgd. Not from the berserkers, who were
Norse warriors.
Brad
players prisoners' game going on. The game payoffs are set so that, if
you make a move, everyone else will kill you. Your rational play is
not only to refrain from making a move, but to be so quiet no one else
knows you even exist to play the game. So everybody stays silent.
http://bit.ly/eZTCsE
The concept comes from a set of science fiction stories by Fred
Saberhagen: http://bit.ly/fjDtgd. Not from the berserkers, who were
Norse warriors.
Brad
29 November 2010
Foreclosure crisis in the US
Here: http://bit.ly/hZia0m.
The banks have a huge paperwork problem regarding mortgages they hold. Either they can't find, or they may have destroyed, key paperwork. Then, they try to push foreclosure through the courts using possibly phony documents.
Right now there is a 18 month wait on foreclosure proceedings. So, from the home owner's point of view, if you are underwater with your mortgage and about to default, the rational thing to do is to stay in the house. You can get 18 months rent- and mortgage payment-free.
Brad
The banks have a huge paperwork problem regarding mortgages they hold. Either they can't find, or they may have destroyed, key paperwork. Then, they try to push foreclosure through the courts using possibly phony documents.
Right now there is a 18 month wait on foreclosure proceedings. So, from the home owner's point of view, if you are underwater with your mortgage and about to default, the rational thing to do is to stay in the house. You can get 18 months rent- and mortgage payment-free.
Brad
Robert Lucas on income inequality and Malthus
This is an historical review of economic growth: http://bit.ly/9M0OA1.
He makes the points that (1) productivity gains underlay economic
growth and (2) productivity gains are the cause of the income
inequality.
Brad
He makes the points that (1) productivity gains underlay economic
growth and (2) productivity gains are the cause of the income
inequality.
Brad
Niklas Blanchard's
ten books to rule them all (http://bit.ly/cpVeoX).
I am a sucker for lists of books, lists of movies, or lists of
professors that have influenced people.
Brad
I am a sucker for lists of books, lists of movies, or lists of
professors that have influenced people.
Brad
Yes men
A Theory of Yes Men by Prendergast: http://bit.ly/eFRHTr.
The idea is that, if managers give incentives based upon subjective
data, then you'll get "Yes Men." If you don't want conformity and want
creativity, do not give incentives based subjectively.
Brad
The idea is that, if managers give incentives based upon subjective
data, then you'll get "Yes Men." If you don't want conformity and want
creativity, do not give incentives based subjectively.
Brad
A Fable of the OC
by Michael Munger: http://bit.ly/gY7dp2.
The OC is not only Orange County, but also Opportunity Cost. OC is a
difficult concept.
Brad
The OC is not only Orange County, but also Opportunity Cost. OC is a
difficult concept.
Brad
19 October 2010
Types of Argument
There are at least 3 types of argument (http://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=kQFKtI6gn9Y).
One, is the dialectical. This was used by Socrates. It involves 2 or
more people holding a discussion, the goal being to advance their
understanding.
Two, is rhetorical. In this, the speaker or writer is trying to
convince an audience (http://bit.ly/aEy78A).
Three, is debate-style, where 2 or more speakers are trying to score
points off each other and win.
You don't want to think you'll be in 1 kind of argument and find out
you're in another. You might not have prepared properly.
Brad
v=kQFKtI6gn9Y).
One, is the dialectical. This was used by Socrates. It involves 2 or
more people holding a discussion, the goal being to advance their
understanding.
Two, is rhetorical. In this, the speaker or writer is trying to
convince an audience (http://bit.ly/aEy78A).
Three, is debate-style, where 2 or more speakers are trying to score
points off each other and win.
You don't want to think you'll be in 1 kind of argument and find out
you're in another. You might not have prepared properly.
Brad
29 September 2010
Personalities and Economists
This is not for Javi.
For me, I like the know the personality of the economist when I'm
reading one of his or her papers. The personality helps my memory,
which needs all the help it can get. The trouble is, it's hard to find
out about personality.
Here's one guy at Columbia University (http://ping.fm/YYWe6
Indexmuppet.htm) who shows his personality on his web-page. He's from
Spain (a country on the Iberian peninsula). He likes football. He has
a list of quotes when a person predicts failure for something and it
turns out to be a raging success (e.g., Bill Gates: "Why would anyone
ever need more than 640K of RAM?"). Fun, fun, fun.
Another place to look for personality, in the US, is the website
ratemyprofessors.com. Here are his students describing the guy:
http://ping.fm/P5sxE A red pepper
indicates the professor is hot, meaning he or she is good-looking.
For me, I like the know the personality of the economist when I'm
reading one of his or her papers. The personality helps my memory,
which needs all the help it can get. The trouble is, it's hard to find
out about personality.
Here's one guy at Columbia University (http://ping.fm/YYWe6
Indexmuppet.htm) who shows his personality on his web-page. He's from
Spain (a country on the Iberian peninsula). He likes football. He has
a list of quotes when a person predicts failure for something and it
turns out to be a raging success (e.g., Bill Gates: "Why would anyone
ever need more than 640K of RAM?"). Fun, fun, fun.
Another place to look for personality, in the US, is the website
ratemyprofessors.com. Here are his students describing the guy:
http://ping.fm/P5sxE A red pepper
indicates the professor is hot, meaning he or she is good-looking.
28 September 2010
This article (http://bit.ly/9DxQoq) is about people who are not good
at something (like humor) but are not aware of it.
In medicine, there is a condition called anosognosia, meaning the
patient is ill but is not aware of it. For instance a person might
have had a stroke, but, because of the location of the stroke, they
don't realize they've had a stroke or that they have weakness,
although it's abundantly clear to everyone else.
The question is: what are you not good at, but don't know it? or, do
you know what you don't know?
at something (like humor) but are not aware of it.
In medicine, there is a condition called anosognosia, meaning the
patient is ill but is not aware of it. For instance a person might
have had a stroke, but, because of the location of the stroke, they
don't realize they've had a stroke or that they have weakness,
although it's abundantly clear to everyone else.
The question is: what are you not good at, but don't know it? or, do
you know what you don't know?
I heard Jake Adelstein (http://bit.ly/cgTxVY) interviewed today on a
BBC radio show. He is an investigative reporter, involved mainly
looking into organized crime in Japan. He says that, in Japan,
organized crime is supported, or at least not discouraged. The idea is
that you WANT to have monopolies in crime.
WHAT!? Well, economically, the idea is that, with monopolies, you get
companies that don't reach and don't particularly try to reach the
production frontier. You get fewer entrepreneurs, fewer SMEs, and less
innovation.
I do recall Baumol (http://bit.ly/beE8yC) wrote that entrepreneurs
will innovate. In good economic times, they'll work on things that are
good for society; but, in bad economic times, they'll work on things
that are bad for society. You just can't stop them.
Well, if you support organized crime, the idea is that the organized
crime bosses will drive the entrepreneurs away from doing things that
are bad for society.
At least, in theory.
I wonder what are the unintended consequences of this?
BBC radio show. He is an investigative reporter, involved mainly
looking into organized crime in Japan. He says that, in Japan,
organized crime is supported, or at least not discouraged. The idea is
that you WANT to have monopolies in crime.
WHAT!? Well, economically, the idea is that, with monopolies, you get
companies that don't reach and don't particularly try to reach the
production frontier. You get fewer entrepreneurs, fewer SMEs, and less
innovation.
I do recall Baumol (http://bit.ly/beE8yC) wrote that entrepreneurs
will innovate. In good economic times, they'll work on things that are
good for society; but, in bad economic times, they'll work on things
that are bad for society. You just can't stop them.
Well, if you support organized crime, the idea is that the organized
crime bosses will drive the entrepreneurs away from doing things that
are bad for society.
At least, in theory.
I wonder what are the unintended consequences of this?
This (http://ping.fm/iUyuR) is a famous
documentary. Barbara Kopple films a coal miners' strike in Kentucky in
1973. I hope people outside the US can watch films on hulu.
documentary. Barbara Kopple films a coal miners' strike in Kentucky in
1973. I hope people outside the US can watch films on hulu.
This article (http://bit.ly/aU74r6) concerns the performance of
various wines in wine competitions. They found "that winning a gold
medal was significantly influenced by chance alone." I am not sure
what's the take-home message from the article, so obviously more work
needs to be done in this area. Here are some possible take-homes
(obviously an incomplete list):
1) If it tastes good, it is good. Don't worry what the experts say,
because they can't agree.
2) The wine experts, enthusiasts, and snobs (i.e., my brother-in-law)
have no idea what they're talking about, and they're fooling
themselves if they think they do. This is another example of the
Kruger-Dunning effect.
3) It's like the Coke-Pepsi taste tests. The message is: you're buying
the name on the label. The name is part of the tasting experience.
4) People couldn't tell the difference between neat alcohol mixed with
grape juice and a high-quality wine.
various wines in wine competitions. They found "that winning a gold
medal was significantly influenced by chance alone." I am not sure
what's the take-home message from the article, so obviously more work
needs to be done in this area. Here are some possible take-homes
(obviously an incomplete list):
1) If it tastes good, it is good. Don't worry what the experts say,
because they can't agree.
2) The wine experts, enthusiasts, and snobs (i.e., my brother-in-law)
have no idea what they're talking about, and they're fooling
themselves if they think they do. This is another example of the
Kruger-Dunning effect.
3) It's like the Coke-Pepsi taste tests. The message is: you're buying
the name on the label. The name is part of the tasting experience.
4) People couldn't tell the difference between neat alcohol mixed with
grape juice and a high-quality wine.
30 August 2010
2008-8-29
"THIS AFTERNOON I RECEIVED A POST IT NOTE IN THE READING ROOM ASKING HOW I WANTED TO BE NOTIFIED OF EEGs S TO BE INTERPRETEDTO BE INTERPRETED OVER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I GUESS I THOUGHT THIS PROCEDURE, AS LEAST FOR MYSELF, WAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED BUT JUST IN CASE NOT PLEASE REVIEW THE NOTES BELOW WITH ALL EEG TECHS AND IF ANY QUESTIONS PERHAPS WE SHOULD MET TO CLARIFY.
1. WHEN THE TECH IS NOTIFIED OF AN EEG TO BE DONE I WANT TO BE PAGED WITH A TEXT MESSAGE INDICATING THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF COMPLETION. THIS CAN BE DONE BY CALLING THE MUNSON OPERATOR AT 935-5000.
2. THEN WHEN THE EEG HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING DOWNLOADED PLEASE SEND A SECOND PAGE TO INDICATE THE EXAM IS READY TO BE INTERPRETED AND REQUEST THAT I CALL TECH TO CONFIRM THAT I HAVE RECEIVED THE MESSAGES.
3. IF ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAY OCCURS IN THE EXAM AN ADDITIONAL PAGE TO INFORM ME WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
4. IF THERE ARE ANY PROBLEMS OR QUESTIONS RE CONTACTING ME REGULAR LAND LINE CALLS TO MY HOME AT 946-5611 OR TO MY INFREQUENTLY ANSWERED CELL 734-474-7683 COULD ALSO BE ATTEMPTED. AND IN ADDITION EMAILING ME AT MCSALON@GMAIL..COM OR SREC@CHARTERINTERNET.COM MIGHT ALSO BE ATTEMPTED.
AS ALWAYS MORE INFORMATION THAN NECESSARY IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN INSUFFICIENT INFO."
"THIS AFTERNOON I RECEIVED A POST IT NOTE IN THE READING ROOM ASKING HOW I WANTED TO BE NOTIFIED OF EEGs S TO BE INTERPRETEDTO BE INTERPRETED OVER THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. I GUESS I THOUGHT THIS PROCEDURE, AS LEAST FOR MYSELF, WAS ALREADY ESTABLISHED BUT JUST IN CASE NOT PLEASE REVIEW THE NOTES BELOW WITH ALL EEG TECHS AND IF ANY QUESTIONS PERHAPS WE SHOULD MET TO CLARIFY.
1. WHEN THE TECH IS NOTIFIED OF AN EEG TO BE DONE I WANT TO BE PAGED WITH A TEXT MESSAGE INDICATING THE APPROXIMATE TIME OF COMPLETION. THIS CAN BE DONE BY CALLING THE MUNSON OPERATOR AT 935-5000.
2. THEN WHEN THE EEG HAS BEEN COMPLETED AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING DOWNLOADED PLEASE SEND A SECOND PAGE TO INDICATE THE EXAM IS READY TO BE INTERPRETED AND REQUEST THAT I CALL TECH TO CONFIRM THAT I HAVE RECEIVED THE MESSAGES.
3. IF ANY SIGNIFICANT DELAY OCCURS IN THE EXAM AN ADDITIONAL PAGE TO INFORM ME WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
4. IF THERE ARE ANY PROBLEMS OR QUESTIONS RE CONTACTING ME REGULAR LAND LINE CALLS TO MY HOME AT 946-5611 OR TO MY INFREQUENTLY ANSWERED CELL 734-474-7683 COULD ALSO BE ATTEMPTED. AND IN ADDITION EMAILING ME AT MCSALON@GMAIL..COM OR SREC@CHARTERINTERNET.COM MIGHT ALSO BE ATTEMPTED.
AS ALWAYS MORE INFORMATION THAN NECESSARY IS ALWAYS BETTER THAN INSUFFICIENT INFO."
29 August 2010
27 August 2010
2010-5-7
"ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE ERRORS IN MY TIMECARD FOR EEG INTERPRETATIONS.
1. MY FIGURES INDICATE 15 REGULAR INTERPRETATIONS, NOT 13
2. MY FIGURES INDICTE 3 CAROTID INTERPRETATIONS, NOT 1
I HAVE REVIEWED THESE DATA WITH THE TECH OF THE DAY PEGGY. SOME OF THESE APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ASCRIBED TO DR EVANS INSTEAD OF MYSELF.
PLEASE REVIEW THIS ADDITIONAL DISCREPANCY AND FORWARD CORRECTED DATA AND ADDITIONAL COMPENSATION TO MYSELF IN A SUPPLEMENTAL CHECK SO IT WILL NOT BE CONFUSING AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT SCHEDULED PAY PERIOD COMPENSATION.
IS THERE NOT SOME WAY TO HAVE TECHS OR WHOMEVER CORRECTLY ANNOTATE INTERPRETERS REGARDLESS OF WHO IS ON THE CALL SHEET WHICH IS FREQUENTLY CHANGED AND SOMETIMES NOT UP TO DATE? PLEASE!"
These emails are all from one person.
"ONCE AGAIN THERE ARE ERRORS IN MY TIMECARD FOR EEG INTERPRETATIONS.
1. MY FIGURES INDICATE 15 REGULAR INTERPRETATIONS, NOT 13
2. MY FIGURES INDICTE 3 CAROTID INTERPRETATIONS, NOT 1
I HAVE REVIEWED THESE DATA WITH THE TECH OF THE DAY PEGGY. SOME OF THESE APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN ASCRIBED TO DR EVANS INSTEAD OF MYSELF.
PLEASE REVIEW THIS ADDITIONAL DISCREPANCY AND FORWARD CORRECTED DATA AND ADDITIONAL COMPENSATION TO MYSELF IN A SUPPLEMENTAL CHECK SO IT WILL NOT BE CONFUSING AT THE TIME OF THE NEXT SCHEDULED PAY PERIOD COMPENSATION.
IS THERE NOT SOME WAY TO HAVE TECHS OR WHOMEVER CORRECTLY ANNOTATE INTERPRETERS REGARDLESS OF WHO IS ON THE CALL SHEET WHICH IS FREQUENTLY CHANGED AND SOMETIMES NOT UP TO DATE? PLEASE!"
These emails are all from one person.
26 August 2010
2010-5-14
"YESTERDAY I REQUESTED AND OLD TRACING 09-750 BE LOADED ONTO THE ACTIVE DATABSE SO THAT I COULD COMPARE THE EXAM WITH A NEW STUDY ON THIS PATIENT 46-12-44.
TODAY I RECEIVED A POST IT NOTE (UNSIGNED) THAT STATES "WE CANNOT ACCESS THE DISK THIS STUDY IS ON SORRY."
PLEASE RESPOND TO THIS EMAIL RE THE FOLLOWING QUERIES.
1. WHY IS THE DATA INACCESSIBLE? IS IT MISSING, CORRUPT OR WHAT?
2. ARE THERE OTHER SIMILAR INSTANCES OF MISSING DATA--IF SO PLEASE ENUMERATE.
3. HAVE ATTEMPTS BEEN MADE TO CORRECT THIS AND OTHER SIMILAR DEFICIENCIES?
THANKS"
This is another email. Is it bullying?
Brad
"YESTERDAY I REQUESTED AND OLD TRACING 09-750 BE LOADED ONTO THE ACTIVE DATABSE SO THAT I COULD COMPARE THE EXAM WITH A NEW STUDY ON THIS PATIENT 46-12-44.
TODAY I RECEIVED A POST IT NOTE (UNSIGNED) THAT STATES "WE CANNOT ACCESS THE DISK THIS STUDY IS ON SORRY."
PLEASE RESPOND TO THIS EMAIL RE THE FOLLOWING QUERIES.
1. WHY IS THE DATA INACCESSIBLE? IS IT MISSING, CORRUPT OR WHAT?
2. ARE THERE OTHER SIMILAR INSTANCES OF MISSING DATA--IF SO PLEASE ENUMERATE.
3. HAVE ATTEMPTS BEEN MADE TO CORRECT THIS AND OTHER SIMILAR DEFICIENCIES?
THANKS"
This is another email. Is it bullying?
Brad
25 August 2010
Bullying? (August 7, 2010)
"thanks for interpreting the ssep on my icu patient today.
however there does seems to be a lack of communication re when these studies can be ordered and expected to
be interpreted. this same patient could have had the exam on Friday but no ep trained tech was available. I
would request that a mechanism be put in place to notify on call neurologists when ssep studies cannot be
done due either to tech or interpreter unavailability. it is not good to tell a family you have an exam that may help
them with decisions and then not to be able to provide the service promptly. thanks"
ep is evoked potentials; ssep stands for somatosensory evoked potentials.
"thanks for interpreting the ssep on my icu patient today.
however there does seems to be a lack of communication re when these studies can be ordered and expected to
be interpreted. this same patient could have had the exam on Friday but no ep trained tech was available. I
would request that a mechanism be put in place to notify on call neurologists when ssep studies cannot be
done due either to tech or interpreter unavailability. it is not good to tell a family you have an exam that may help
them with decisions and then not to be able to provide the service promptly. thanks"
ep is evoked potentials; ssep stands for somatosensory evoked potentials.
It's part of the definition of bullying that it's a repetitive activity. One problem when you're facing a bullying situation is that some episodes have passed before you realize what's going on. If you complain about the bullying, you may be asked: Why now? With the other episodes, you did not complain.
24 August 2010
27 July 2010
http://bit.ly/ajqEhq Peter Klein on the BP oil spill. 1) Liability caps may have led to moral hazard. 2) Principal-agent problem arises with leasing (the drilling platform). 3) A flatter, decentralized corporate structure (BP's trend) may lead to faster response times and flexibility, but also to coordination failure and moral hazard.
19 July 2010
Are stock buybacks a form of legal insider trading and shouldn't they indicate the stock will achieve a superior return? No: http://bit.ly/caJSyc.
14 July 2010
According to this, you can fight the tax assessment on your home. Many counties try to hold the assessment stable, although values may have dropped: http://bit.ly/9uGZ8U.
GSK did an "under-the-radar" study to look into the cardiovascular risk of Avandia, then hid the study results: http://bit.ly/bWv3FI.
Jeffrey Pfeffer's new article "Power Play," published in HBR, is available here: http://bit.ly/dlmxIK.
13 July 2010
It's hard to overestimate the damage GSK has done to itself. They employ an academic hit man, hide negative data, ban employees from pharma gossip sites, improperly obtain articles before publication, and more. Read about it here: http://bit.ly/bT0eWn.
12 July 2010
Toyota makes threats to SIU after its professor has a theory for the acceleration accidents. http://bit.ly/ah6kkG. I smell cover-up.
11 July 2010
From Volokh Conspiracy: The current estate tax situation is a perverse incentive. People with large estates benefit by dying before the year is out: http://bit.ly/dCzwUb.
Michael Shedlock on Seattle's pension plan problems: http://bit.ly/9Sb761. Its problems are related to defined benefit plans.
Free downloads of articles at Harvard Journal of Law and Public Policy: http://ping.fm/08LRe From the Federalist Society. HT: Frankenblog.
Black hole blows gas bubble. Black holes gain energy and then eject energy, usually as X-rays. http://bit.ly/a2d0VG. HT: naked capitalism.
08 July 2010
02 July 2010
Dendreon's prostate cancer vaccine will cost $93,000 per patient per year! http://bit.ly/9FtDLI. That's got to be a joke.
01 July 2010
Update on Pfizer's Trovan trial: http://bit.ly/bHuUin. It would have been better to have done the study right in the 1st place...
Streisand effect? I hope so.
Quackwatch (http://ping.fm/lc7Rt) has received a "cease and desist" letter from Algis Augustine (http://ping.fm/E98oJ14Legal/dd_suit.html), representing the "licensed CLIA laboratory" Doctor's Data. Doctor's Data is the lab that doctors doing chelation therapy use for determining heavy metal toxicity. The more chelation these guys do, the better, so they will find the lab that finds the highest levels of heavy metals (http://ping.fm/z1F2a01QuackeryRelatedTopics/Tests/urine_toxic.html). CLIA licensing is obviously not as stringent as I thought. Perhaps this is another example of government regulatory failure.
Quackwatch, a valuable website, could use any help you can give it. There is only one Quackwatch, but there is a need for many more.
Quackwatch (http://ping.fm/lc7Rt) has received a "cease and desist" letter from Algis Augustine (http://ping.fm/E98oJ14Legal/dd_suit.html), representing the "licensed CLIA laboratory" Doctor's Data. Doctor's Data is the lab that doctors doing chelation therapy use for determining heavy metal toxicity. The more chelation these guys do, the better, so they will find the lab that finds the highest levels of heavy metals (http://ping.fm/z1F2a01QuackeryRelatedTopics/Tests/urine_toxic.html). CLIA licensing is obviously not as stringent as I thought. Perhaps this is another example of government regulatory failure.
Quackwatch, a valuable website, could use any help you can give it. There is only one Quackwatch, but there is a need for many more.
Debreu's book Theory of Value can be downloaded at no charge here: http://bit.ly/d3O9Vx. HT:Falkenblog.
Good news! The Dow is down! The dividend yield of the Dow is now more than the T-bond yield: http://bit.ly/bZyYfO.
States starting to cut back on pensions for state employees: http://bit.ly/ao2dyj. For the auto industry, unions insisted on defined benefit plans. That may have been a mistake. I wonder if a person could auction their pension on e-bay???
30 June 2010
Medical ghostwriting, by Grassley's committee: http://bit.ly/dsQYk4. HT: Margaret Soltan, University Diaries.
UK Vodka best in world: http://bit.ly/aXwS70. Take this with a bit of tonic. In wine ratings, the rating varies from contest to contest, randomly. If you can't tell which wine is the best, how can you tell which is the best vodka?
Just-in-time for disaster? http://bit.ly/99qVxB. The idea of JIT is to shove your warehousing costs off to the suppliers. The risk is that the suppliers won't keep sufficient supplies for disaster. This is a hidden risk.
28 June 2010
The government looks into ghostwriting of scientific articles in medical journals: http://bit.ly/d6eM9U. The well-established procedure is: (1) pharmaceutical company does a study, (2) pharmaceutical company maintains the database, (3) pharmaceutical company hires a medical writer to write the article, and (4) pharmaceutical company arranges with a top academic professor to put his or her name as the lead author. Ghostwriting, if it were a Harvard student putting his name on the product, would be considered plagiarism. The student would typically be expelled.
High Dudgeon, or blowing the whistle at KCUMB on Peltz: http://ping.fm/CmXzL Morals of the story: One, whistleblowers are terrified of being found out; two, if you do whistleblow, blow OUTSIDE the organization and try to create a paper trail.
Dr. Matthew Mintz of George Washington Univ fails to disclose financial conflict of interest with GlaxoSmithKline to Forbes: http://ping.fm/z9zOf (1) Failure to disclose may lead to assumption of bias, but does full disclosure lead to assumption of no bias? (2) People who have conflicts of interest are usually the last to realize it.
Michael Shermer on Fraud in Science: http://bit.ly/dCcCJE. Recognition of the difference between deception and self-deception depends upon determination of intent. This is difficult. First, you have to pick the person who makes the determination. Second, they have to make the determination.
27 June 2010
26 June 2010
24 June 2010
Competition increases cheating, particularly when individuals are performing poorly: http://bit.ly/ctsiXA
How much is a CEO worth? http://bit.ly/bQ5J96. I am looking for the Graef Crystal article upon which this is based.
22 June 2010
12 June 2010
05 June 2010
01 June 2010
16 May 2010
15 May 2010
Oops! I just got my MBA from IE. Does this put paid to the idea of getting education during a recession? http://bit.ly/alWU6x
14 May 2010
13 May 2010
11 May 2010
Futebol finance is a Portuguese RSS feed. You can translate to many languages (not Russian or Chinese though) or brush up on your Portuguese: http://bit.ly/dpTsPh
10 May 2010
Bebchuk et al on Learning and the disappearing association between governance and returns: http://bit.ly/dcz5Ya
1) Editor of Medical Hypotheses publishes article by Peter Duesberg. 2) Editor is sacked. http://bit.ly/bxUBAW
06 May 2010
04 May 2010
Nick Gillespie of Reason Magazine on GM "paying back the TARP loan in full": http://bit.ly/9d3wjm. HT:ProfessorBainbridge
02 May 2010
25 April 2010
12 April 2010
13 March 2010
09 March 2010
EMR; fMRI; Alzheimer and smoking
Alexander Friedman: "Today’s electronic medical records are written for the benefit of insurance companies, which scrutinize each doctor’s note carefully for billing purposes."
Puzzlingly High Correlations in fMRI Studies: Watch those fMRI studies. Some are reporting correlations not only too high to be believed, but higher than possible.
Cigarette Smoking is a Risk Factor for Alzheimer's Disease: An Analysis Controlling for Tobacco Industry Affiliation: Tobacco company-sponsored studies report lower correlations between smoking and getting Alzheimer's. He who pays the piper calls the tune.
Puzzlingly High Correlations in fMRI Studies: Watch those fMRI studies. Some are reporting correlations not only too high to be believed, but higher than possible.
Cigarette Smoking is a Risk Factor for Alzheimer's Disease: An Analysis Controlling for Tobacco Industry Affiliation: Tobacco company-sponsored studies report lower correlations between smoking and getting Alzheimer's. He who pays the piper calls the tune.
Where will new treatments for stroke come from
by Howells and Donnan. Includes a table with NNT data for stroke treatments.
22 February 2010
Free ebooks on economics and business
All,
There are free books at http://bookboon.com/. I don't recognize the authors' names, but the books look good (and they're free, at least free for the price of registration).
Brad
There are free books at http://bookboon.com/. I don't recognize the authors' names, but the books look good (and they're free, at least free for the price of registration).
Brad
Opportunity Cost
All,
Here is Michael Munger, Chairman of Political Science at Duke, explaining opportunity cost ("the OC" traditionally refers to Orange County): http://bit.ly/cC0HPD.
Brad
Here is Michael Munger, Chairman of Political Science at Duke, explaining opportunity cost ("the OC" traditionally refers to Orange County): http://bit.ly/cC0HPD.
Brad
All,
Ricardo's comparative advantage idea is one of the most important, poorly understood, and underused concepts in economics. It applies not just in foreign trade, but everywhere there is trade. Even dividing up the household chores might involve comparative advantage.
Here is Nobel Prizewinner Paul Krugman explaining the idea: http://bit.ly/rK0sh. Here you can get a free ebook of Ricardo's Principles of Political Economy and Taxation: http://bit.ly/brRjNO.
Brad
Ricardo's comparative advantage idea is one of the most important, poorly understood, and underused concepts in economics. It applies not just in foreign trade, but everywhere there is trade. Even dividing up the household chores might involve comparative advantage.
Here is Nobel Prizewinner Paul Krugman explaining the idea: http://bit.ly/rK0sh. Here you can get a free ebook of Ricardo's Principles of Political Economy and Taxation: http://bit.ly/brRjNO.
Brad
14 February 2010
Free Game Theory Book
Game theory started and grew at the RAND Corporation. You can download John D. Williams's The Complete Strategyst here (http://www.rand.org/pubs/commercial_books/CB113-1/). Look below "Add to Cart," where it says "Download pdf version here."
Failure
How do you know failure? It is not as easy as it seems. Here, from CFO.com, is an article by McCann on the subject, for companies: http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/14473961.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)