here.
Brad Evans
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
07 January 2009
02 January 2009
26 December 2008
21 December 2008
20 December 2008
"Rational" Economics
Greg Mankiw thinks that tax cuts or dropping money from helicopters would be more rational than the fiscal stimulus ideas of the current and future US administrations.
BUT, isn't the world rational? And if the world is rational, wouldn't fiscal stimulus be rational? Isn't everything for the best in this best of all possible worlds?
Dan Ariely says the world is not rational. I agree. Not rational.
Brad Evans
BUT, isn't the world rational? And if the world is rational, wouldn't fiscal stimulus be rational? Isn't everything for the best in this best of all possible worlds?
Dan Ariely says the world is not rational. I agree. Not rational.
Brad Evans
10 December 2008
Black market
Here's an opinion that, if you operate in an area that is illegal or might be illegal, you need to consider your risk of getting caught. For the black market, it's 1.5% according to this
article.
Brad Evans
article.
Brad Evans
The value of a senate seat?
I haven't heard what the bids were for Obama's old Senate seat. Blagojevich probably thought that the price of a Senate seat is pretty high. One way to estimate its worth is to look at close Senate races to see what's spent for a 50% chance at a seat.
The problem is that winning the seat in an election and purchasing it from Blagovich are two entirely different things and will change valuation. So, there's a difference depending on how the seat is obtained.
First, you've got to figure that Blagovich is shopping the Senate seat around. He's not just offering it to you. You could ask him if he's shopping it around, but will you get an honest answer?
So, if he's shopping it around, what are the chances that one of the people will turn him in? I think here you've got to assume he will be turned in.
Therefore, for the cost of a Senate seat, you've got to factor in the risk that the deal will be turned in and you either won't get the seat or you'll have it for a short time only. Will you face jail time? I don't know. It might be illegal to SELL a senate seat, but not illegal to BUY it. Or, they'll want to prosecute Blagojevich, so you could cut a deal: testify against him and get off. To me, I think that it's like prostitution. The Law wants the prostitute, but not the john. Will your name live in infamy? If you get the Senate seat, and then have to resign, YES. However, if you get the seat, but resign, you may still be eligible for some valuable things, like grade A health insurance for life for you and your family, and a retirement plan.
What Blagojevich could get for a Senate seat seems to me to be pretty low, and depends on the numbers you assign to the various factors above.
Brad Evans
The problem is that winning the seat in an election and purchasing it from Blagovich are two entirely different things and will change valuation. So, there's a difference depending on how the seat is obtained.
First, you've got to figure that Blagovich is shopping the Senate seat around. He's not just offering it to you. You could ask him if he's shopping it around, but will you get an honest answer?
So, if he's shopping it around, what are the chances that one of the people will turn him in? I think here you've got to assume he will be turned in.
Therefore, for the cost of a Senate seat, you've got to factor in the risk that the deal will be turned in and you either won't get the seat or you'll have it for a short time only. Will you face jail time? I don't know. It might be illegal to SELL a senate seat, but not illegal to BUY it. Or, they'll want to prosecute Blagojevich, so you could cut a deal: testify against him and get off. To me, I think that it's like prostitution. The Law wants the prostitute, but not the john. Will your name live in infamy? If you get the Senate seat, and then have to resign, YES. However, if you get the seat, but resign, you may still be eligible for some valuable things, like grade A health insurance for life for you and your family, and a retirement plan.
What Blagojevich could get for a Senate seat seems to me to be pretty low, and depends on the numbers you assign to the various factors above.
Brad Evans
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