Bebchuk et al show (1) there's an antitakeover effect and (2) there's
reduced shareholder returns in companies with staggered boards:
http://bit.ly/eaURWE .
Brad
30 January 2011
Skill or Luck?
http://bit.ly/h1jpcZ . van den Steen says this in the abstract: "This
paper shows why... rational agents tend to
attribute their own success more to skill, and their failure more to
bad luck than an outsider." So, rational agents have biases? Isn't
this like saying rational people are irrational?
He also states that if 2 people do a job and you ask each what their
contribution was in percent., the sum is greater than 100%.
My father, who has high blood triglycerides, and my mother visited a
dietician to figure out a diet to decrease triglycerides. The
dieticians asked my dad what percent. of the meals he made. He said
50%. My dad never made a meal in his life. When they left the
dietician's office, my mother asked for an explanation. He said he
made all his breakfasts (cereal and milk) and half of his lunches (a
sandwich).
So this is what I think of when when someone says the sum will be
greater than 100%, and no one in my family would claim my father is
rational.
Brad
paper shows why... rational agents tend to
attribute their own success more to skill, and their failure more to
bad luck than an outsider." So, rational agents have biases? Isn't
this like saying rational people are irrational?
He also states that if 2 people do a job and you ask each what their
contribution was in percent., the sum is greater than 100%.
My father, who has high blood triglycerides, and my mother visited a
dietician to figure out a diet to decrease triglycerides. The
dieticians asked my dad what percent. of the meals he made. He said
50%. My dad never made a meal in his life. When they left the
dietician's office, my mother asked for an explanation. He said he
made all his breakfasts (cereal and milk) and half of his lunches (a
sandwich).
So this is what I think of when when someone says the sum will be
greater than 100%, and no one in my family would claim my father is
rational.
Brad
Micro and Macro
he meant that macro is a trivial extension of micro. It is the
Austrian economists who are well-known for emphasizing micro:
http://ping.fm/w01MI
Here's the economist Bernard Guerrien on micro ("Is there anything
worth keeping in micro?"): http://ping.fm/uCeOR .
You can't really say that Guerrien and the Austrian economists are
opposed 180 degrees, since both dislike the emphasis on mathematics,
which they think encourages people to accept ideas uncritically mainly
in the form of the assumptions that are made when making the
equations.
Brad
Austrian economists who are well-known for emphasizing micro:
http://ping.fm/w01MI
Here's the economist Bernard Guerrien on micro ("Is there anything
worth keeping in micro?"): http://ping.fm/uCeOR .
You can't really say that Guerrien and the Austrian economists are
opposed 180 degrees, since both dislike the emphasis on mathematics,
which they think encourages people to accept ideas uncritically mainly
in the form of the assumptions that are made when making the
equations.
Brad
Depression
Depression is common. You'll probably deal with someone, perhaps even
yourself, who gets depressed.
Medicine often doesn't work, unfortunately.
There's some evidence that depressed people develop a rut in their
thinking.
Here's a categorization of the cognitive distortions, which is like a
set of cognitive biases, that depressed people develop and use,
consistently and wrongly: http://bit.ly/dZMijx .
One form of treatment is to train people's thinking to aboid these
forms of thinking. It works about as well as medicine.
Brad
yourself, who gets depressed.
Medicine often doesn't work, unfortunately.
There's some evidence that depressed people develop a rut in their
thinking.
Here's a categorization of the cognitive distortions, which is like a
set of cognitive biases, that depressed people develop and use,
consistently and wrongly: http://bit.ly/dZMijx .
One form of treatment is to train people's thinking to aboid these
forms of thinking. It works about as well as medicine.
Brad
Jack Trout and brand diffusion
Here's Jack Trout on brand diffusion, first at GM (http://bit.ly/
ewjh2L ), then diffusion between brands of different companies (http://
bit.ly/g8CHry ).
His points are:
1) brand diffusion is common
2) it's due to muddled marketing thinking
3) it's bad for the company
Brad
ewjh2L ), then diffusion between brands of different companies (http://
bit.ly/g8CHry ).
His points are:
1) brand diffusion is common
2) it's due to muddled marketing thinking
3) it's bad for the company
Brad
Ira Glass and the art of storytelling
here: http://ping.fm/RPVJo .
Ira Glass does the radio show "This American Life," which is very very
good. He majored in college in semiotics, whatever that is.
Brad
Ira Glass does the radio show "This American Life," which is very very
good. He majored in college in semiotics, whatever that is.
Brad
SOTU news: Obama team gets infographic wrong
SOTU is State of the Union, which is an important annual address the
President of the US makes.
Article here: http://bit.ly/dJvpUI .
The main point is that the Obama team was comparing diameters, but
since they depicted circles, it was wrong or misleading. In the
comments, someone writes, "Hey, I think those are spheres, not
circles!"
Brad
President of the US makes.
Article here: http://bit.ly/dJvpUI .
The main point is that the Obama team was comparing diameters, but
since they depicted circles, it was wrong or misleading. In the
comments, someone writes, "Hey, I think those are spheres, not
circles!"
Brad
25 January 2011
Electronic Medical Records (EMRs)
EMRs are the big thing now in US medical care. President Obama wants
medical care computerized. Some see this as increasing efficiency and
quality; some as another step forward on the primrose path to
socialism.
Until recently, everyone saw this as costing a lot of money. Companies
selling EMRs basically had a tricked-up billing system. These
companies bundled their software with hardware and on-site training,
then sold the package at a big mark-up. Each practice was looking at
spending $75-80 thousand.
I kept saying, what about SaaS and cloud computing? (thank you, Prof
Esteves and fellow IXMBAers). Well, EMRs as SaaS and data storage via
cloud computing is becoming available. There is training online.
Companies are competing, and...
The price is dropping. Iinstead of paying upfront for software, you
rent it. Now the best deal is $500/month, which is about what I pay
for billing anyhow.
Here is a blog on EMRs and quality: http://bit.ly/i92N6L. I don't
think the blogger has discovered SaaS and cloud computing options
yet.
Brad
medical care computerized. Some see this as increasing efficiency and
quality; some as another step forward on the primrose path to
socialism.
Until recently, everyone saw this as costing a lot of money. Companies
selling EMRs basically had a tricked-up billing system. These
companies bundled their software with hardware and on-site training,
then sold the package at a big mark-up. Each practice was looking at
spending $75-80 thousand.
I kept saying, what about SaaS and cloud computing? (thank you, Prof
Esteves and fellow IXMBAers). Well, EMRs as SaaS and data storage via
cloud computing is becoming available. There is training online.
Companies are competing, and...
The price is dropping. Iinstead of paying upfront for software, you
rent it. Now the best deal is $500/month, which is about what I pay
for billing anyhow.
Here is a blog on EMRs and quality: http://bit.ly/i92N6L. I don't
think the blogger has discovered SaaS and cloud computing options
yet.
Brad
15 January 2011
Does a hospice have negative externality?
Some people think so: http://bit.ly/gyHJ9W.
What exactly is a negative externality and what is not?
Brad
What exactly is a negative externality and what is not?
Brad
I guess we should all pay attention to
catastrophe theory. Tim Harford on why bankers should have paid
attention to Charles Perrow: http://bit.ly/gaC0pn.
Brad
attention to Charles Perrow: http://bit.ly/gaC0pn.
Brad
The first time I plugged my computer
in in my Spanish hotel, I blew a fuse and lost power for the floor I
was on.
So I was jumpy about plugging my computer in.
Here's an article on different plugs, from Gizmodo: http://gizmo.do/fBeoew.
Brad
was on.
So I was jumpy about plugging my computer in.
Here's an article on different plugs, from Gizmodo: http://gizmo.do/fBeoew.
Brad
14 January 2011
Baby Boomer Demographics
In the US at least, we have the demographic phenomenon of the baby-
boomers, born from 1946-1964. In the US, people born in this era will
have a big economic and business impact.
Here is an article: http://n.pr/euaTS2.
Brad
boomers, born from 1946-1964. In the US, people born in this era will
have a big economic and business impact.
Here is an article: http://n.pr/euaTS2.
Brad
First Amendment
I like US First Amendment issues.
Here is good news, bad news: http://ping.fm/7yMoL
"Muslims are frequent targets today, but in the past Quakers were
lynched, Baptists jailed, Catholic institutions burned, Jews
ostracized, Mormons attacked, Jehovah’s Witnesses tarred and feathered
— and the list goes on.
We have learned the hard way that constitutional guarantees of
religious freedom mean little when the majority succeeds in demonizing
a minority and public officials are either complicit or turn a blind
eye."
The bad news is that it's happened before, it'll happen again.
The good news is that we got out of it before, we'll get out of it
again.
Brad
Here is good news, bad news: http://ping.fm/7yMoL
"Muslims are frequent targets today, but in the past Quakers were
lynched, Baptists jailed, Catholic institutions burned, Jews
ostracized, Mormons attacked, Jehovah’s Witnesses tarred and feathered
— and the list goes on.
We have learned the hard way that constitutional guarantees of
religious freedom mean little when the majority succeeds in demonizing
a minority and public officials are either complicit or turn a blind
eye."
The bad news is that it's happened before, it'll happen again.
The good news is that we got out of it before, we'll get out of it
again.
Brad
Where do bad ideas come from?
This is a foreign policy-oriented article and I don't think it exactly
answers the question, but he does ask an important question, I think:
http://bit.ly/gxhz6M.
Walt is a professor of international affairs at Harvard.
He also talks about the "domino theory," which I mentioned a while
ago. It's a simple easily-visualized theory, which is why it sticks
around. It has a record of being seriously wrong several times in
recent history. If fact, if you have a bad idea, then you realize it,
you can always say, "Well, at least it's not the domino theory."
Brad
answers the question, but he does ask an important question, I think:
http://bit.ly/gxhz6M.
Walt is a professor of international affairs at Harvard.
He also talks about the "domino theory," which I mentioned a while
ago. It's a simple easily-visualized theory, which is why it sticks
around. It has a record of being seriously wrong several times in
recent history. If fact, if you have a bad idea, then you realize it,
you can always say, "Well, at least it's not the domino theory."
Brad
13 January 2011
Business Models
This is from Ramon Casadesus-Masanell: http://bit.ly/eVi2c5. His main
point is that a business model may work well in the lab or in the
abstract, but not work well in real life. He also emphasizes the
winner-take-all model.
The picture the editors chose for the article is great, but I can't
make it fit the article. Here is what the picture makes me think of
("Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold"):
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
WB Yeats
Brad
point is that a business model may work well in the lab or in the
abstract, but not work well in real life. He also emphasizes the
winner-take-all model.
The picture the editors chose for the article is great, but I can't
make it fit the article. Here is what the picture makes me think of
("Things fall apart, the centre cannot hold"):
THE SECOND COMING
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: a waste of desert sand;
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Wind shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
WB Yeats
Brad
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome
There was a report in Science suggesting that a retrovirus, XMRV, was
the cause of chronic fatigue syndrome. It was cultured from some
patients with the condition.
Now, further studies have cast doubt on that hypothesis (http://bit.ly/
ejH2wT).
This happens a lot-ideas that look promising in early studies fail in
subsequent studies.
If I weren't a born cynic, I'm sure that being in medicine would have
made me one.
Brad
the cause of chronic fatigue syndrome. It was cultured from some
patients with the condition.
Now, further studies have cast doubt on that hypothesis (http://bit.ly/
ejH2wT).
This happens a lot-ideas that look promising in early studies fail in
subsequent studies.
If I weren't a born cynic, I'm sure that being in medicine would have
made me one.
Brad
Corporate Guff
If you are not a native English-speaker, you may worry that, by
speaking and writing, you butcher the language. Anything you do is
small compared to what corporate executives do every day. There is
also the suspicion that their output is the result of confused
thinking. Here is my favorite, Lucy Kellaway, on her corporate guff
awards for 2010: http://bit.ly/fOeHaP.
Brad
speaking and writing, you butcher the language. Anything you do is
small compared to what corporate executives do every day. There is
also the suspicion that their output is the result of confused
thinking. Here is my favorite, Lucy Kellaway, on her corporate guff
awards for 2010: http://bit.ly/fOeHaP.
Brad
Economics and Partying
They are not mutually exclusive: http://gaw.kr/i2ZaqM.
More, this time on real estate, economics and partying: http://gaw.kr/eTTGwQ.
Who knew economists lead such full and interesting lives?
I got all this from Jodi Beggs's blog: http://bit.ly/h9g4OW. And
Gawker of course.
Brad
More, this time on real estate, economics and partying: http://gaw.kr/eTTGwQ.
Who knew economists lead such full and interesting lives?
I got all this from Jodi Beggs's blog: http://bit.ly/h9g4OW. And
Gawker of course.
Brad
Publish and Perish
Let's say that you DO discover something and publish it. What happens?
The graph here shows that there's interest initially, then it dies
out: http://bit.ly/fYvBit.
Brad
The graph here shows that there's interest initially, then it dies
out: http://bit.ly/fYvBit.
Brad
Drinking and grades
http://bit.ly/dJuXJE.
More study in this area is needed. Extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence.
Brad
More study in this area is needed. Extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence.
Brad
Transparency International's Corruption
Perception Index (CPI)
is here: http://bit.ly/gKDzTq.
They use "corruption perception" measurements because corruption is
too hard to measure.
Still, Zimbabwe scores better than Russia. To me, that means their
measures are at least a little flawed. I read an economic analysis
that stated that, when corruption is high, voters, if they are
allowed, will tend to vote for smaller government. I assume the
reverse is true, if corruption perception is low, voters will tend to
agree to expand government. If and when I find that link, I will send
it.
I wouldn't advise, though, blogging about corruption in state-owned
companies if the perception is that corruption is high: http://bit.ly/h9vEA1.
Brad
is here: http://bit.ly/gKDzTq.
They use "corruption perception" measurements because corruption is
too hard to measure.
Still, Zimbabwe scores better than Russia. To me, that means their
measures are at least a little flawed. I read an economic analysis
that stated that, when corruption is high, voters, if they are
allowed, will tend to vote for smaller government. I assume the
reverse is true, if corruption perception is low, voters will tend to
agree to expand government. If and when I find that link, I will send
it.
I wouldn't advise, though, blogging about corruption in state-owned
companies if the perception is that corruption is high: http://bit.ly/h9vEA1.
Brad
Housing Bubbles
The implication is that governments in general are pursuing policies
to encourage home ownership. This leads to an increase in house
prices, a bubble.
No word on how to figure out when the bubble will pop.
They present housing prices over time in kroner and house prices over
time in gold. (http://ping.fm/yY1UI
I would lilke to see house prices compared to rental costs, since this
is the economic decision people have to make.
Brad
to encourage home ownership. This leads to an increase in house
prices, a bubble.
No word on how to figure out when the bubble will pop.
They present housing prices over time in kroner and house prices over
time in gold. (http://ping.fm/yY1UI
I would lilke to see house prices compared to rental costs, since this
is the economic decision people have to make.
Brad
Robo-Signers
The last paragraph of this blog (http://bit.ly/dHPzem) is an economic
analysis explaining why companies use Robo-Signers.
Brad
analysis explaining why companies use Robo-Signers.
Brad
Spanish economy
Here is a report on the Spanish economy from NPR (National Public
Radio): http://n.pr/gAbQIB.
The journalist talks to Santiago Carbo Valverde (http://www.ugr.es/
~scarbo/), who is a professor of Economic Theory at Universidad de
Grenada and is a Valencia fan (if that explains anything).
His theory is like a domino theory.
Brad
Radio): http://n.pr/gAbQIB.
The journalist talks to Santiago Carbo Valverde (http://www.ugr.es/
~scarbo/), who is a professor of Economic Theory at Universidad de
Grenada and is a Valencia fan (if that explains anything).
His theory is like a domino theory.
Brad
News from Romania
You may be amused at what the news reports here in the US about your
country.
From Romania, there's news of drunk birds falling dead from the sky
(http://n.pr/gw8nwS) and witches putting a hex on government as their
earnings will now be taxed (http://bit.ly/ffFb4Z).
To be fair, dead birds falling from the sky is a popular story now.
There were a lot of dead birds in Arkansas, and the cause was not
known. I don't know if they checked blood alcohol levels.
By the way, if you're in the US and felt to be possibly driving drunk,
you don't have the protection of the 4th or 5th amendments. Mothers
Against Drunk Driving (MADD) has pushed through legislation that
eliminates the protection afforded by these amendments in regards to
drunk driving. These amendments are in regards to self-incrimination,
and search and seizure.
Nothing in the law about birds. They still fly free. If a dead bird
falls from the sky and hits a schoolchild, probably there'll be some
action.
Brad
country.
From Romania, there's news of drunk birds falling dead from the sky
(http://n.pr/gw8nwS) and witches putting a hex on government as their
earnings will now be taxed (http://bit.ly/ffFb4Z).
To be fair, dead birds falling from the sky is a popular story now.
There were a lot of dead birds in Arkansas, and the cause was not
known. I don't know if they checked blood alcohol levels.
By the way, if you're in the US and felt to be possibly driving drunk,
you don't have the protection of the 4th or 5th amendments. Mothers
Against Drunk Driving (MADD) has pushed through legislation that
eliminates the protection afforded by these amendments in regards to
drunk driving. These amendments are in regards to self-incrimination,
and search and seizure.
Nothing in the law about birds. They still fly free. If a dead bird
falls from the sky and hits a schoolchild, probably there'll be some
action.
Brad
What is each state known for?
Michigan=freshwater shoreline, golf courses. (They were kind to us)
West Virginia=toothlessness.
http://ping.fm/4wLse
Brad
West Virginia=toothlessness.
http://ping.fm/4wLse
Brad
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