transmitted in unpasteurized milk at a fair in Kansas.
Brad Evans
31 December 2008
27 December 2008
Evidence Based Medicine
What is evidence based medicine? The words themselves seem to mean that science should be used to make medical decisions. Well, this is all fine and good. Without a doubt, scientific evidence should be used to help make medical decisions. But, all decisions involve varying proportions of fact and value judgments. For instance, the decision as whether to continue medical care in dire circumstances involves some fact, but mainly value judgments. So, right off the bat, there is one problem with the words "evidence based medicine." It implies that all judgments in medicine should be based on scientific evidence.
Another problem is that many use the term "evidence based medicine" to mean that having total access to evidence will improve medical decisions. "Evidence based" can be turned on its head: What evidence is there that total access to genetic information and medical charts will improve medical decisions? What is meant by access? Who gathers information and what will it be used for?
Let's return again to "evidence based medicine." What is it and who decides what it is? There often are three individuals or organizations involved: the patient, the doctor, and the entity paying for the medical care. Suppose the paying entity, which is usually the government or an insurance company, carries out a study showing cost savings that would be recognized if a certain course of medical care were pursued. How much should that information be used in making a medical decision?
This is just a taste of the problems that the phrase "evidence based medicine" brings with it.
Another problem is that many use the term "evidence based medicine" to mean that having total access to evidence will improve medical decisions. "Evidence based" can be turned on its head: What evidence is there that total access to genetic information and medical charts will improve medical decisions? What is meant by access? Who gathers information and what will it be used for?
Let's return again to "evidence based medicine." What is it and who decides what it is? There often are three individuals or organizations involved: the patient, the doctor, and the entity paying for the medical care. Suppose the paying entity, which is usually the government or an insurance company, carries out a study showing cost savings that would be recognized if a certain course of medical care were pursued. How much should that information be used in making a medical decision?
This is just a taste of the problems that the phrase "evidence based medicine" brings with it.
26 December 2008
25 December 2008
24 December 2008
Plymouth
From The Political Economy of Football,
PLYMOUTH FEEL THE PINCH – 22/12/08
The credit crunch is making itself felt at Championship club Plymouth Argyle in terms of falling attendances - although some locals blame the standard of football on offer at Home Park. Chairman Paul Stapleton has revealed that cost-cutting measures are being considered, but he also believes that Argyle are better positoned than many Football League clubs to cope with the economic crisis. And Stapleton admitted that the money-spinning FA Cup third round tie at Arsenal on January 3 was coming at a very opportune time. He commented, 'The board of directors have had to support the club personally with funds but that's obvious when the gates are dropping to around the 10,000 mark. It was disappointing to see Barnsley [Argyle's opponents on Saturday] with a higher gate than we have had the last two home games [against Birmingham City and QPR]. This disappoints me because they haven't got any more money in Barnsley than in Plymouth - perhaps even less.' However, he added, 'But we are not the only ones. We had a Football League meeting last week, and a lot of clubs are feeling the pinch on attendances.'
Plymouth have the advantage of being a 'stand alone' club serving a large city with a substantial hinterland in West Devon and Cornwall without league competition. Against that, it is a relatively low wage, low skill economy and the club does not have a great heritage. They may even be punching above their weight and will need careful husbandry of their finances to stay that way.
Brad Evans
PLYMOUTH FEEL THE PINCH – 22/12/08
The credit crunch is making itself felt at Championship club Plymouth Argyle in terms of falling attendances - although some locals blame the standard of football on offer at Home Park. Chairman Paul Stapleton has revealed that cost-cutting measures are being considered, but he also believes that Argyle are better positoned than many Football League clubs to cope with the economic crisis. And Stapleton admitted that the money-spinning FA Cup third round tie at Arsenal on January 3 was coming at a very opportune time. He commented, 'The board of directors have had to support the club personally with funds but that's obvious when the gates are dropping to around the 10,000 mark. It was disappointing to see Barnsley [Argyle's opponents on Saturday] with a higher gate than we have had the last two home games [against Birmingham City and QPR]. This disappoints me because they haven't got any more money in Barnsley than in Plymouth - perhaps even less.' However, he added, 'But we are not the only ones. We had a Football League meeting last week, and a lot of clubs are feeling the pinch on attendances.'
Plymouth have the advantage of being a 'stand alone' club serving a large city with a substantial hinterland in West Devon and Cornwall without league competition. Against that, it is a relatively low wage, low skill economy and the club does not have a great heritage. They may even be punching above their weight and will need careful husbandry of their finances to stay that way.
Brad Evans
MIT Courses
Jan 2009:
Theory of Probability here.
Introduction to Geology here.
Cholesterol in Health and Disease here.
European Thought and Culture here.
Managing Innovation and Entrepreneurship here.
Engineering Economy (Financial Management) here.
Corporate Entrepreneurship here.
Economy and Business in Modern China and India here.
Rethinking the American Masterpiece: Studies in Fiction here.
Technology and Nature in American History here.
Brad Evans
Theory of Probability here.
Introduction to Geology here.
Cholesterol in Health and Disease here.
European Thought and Culture here.
Managing Innovation and Entrepreneurship here.
Engineering Economy (Financial Management) here.
Corporate Entrepreneurship here.
Economy and Business in Modern China and India here.
Rethinking the American Masterpiece: Studies in Fiction here.
Technology and Nature in American History here.
Brad Evans
21 December 2008
Enviromental impact of wind farms
is overstated. I am shocked, shocked. It seems to me the environmental area is ripe for charlatans. If you know any youngsters interested in being charlatans, you might suggest climate change, environmental. These youngsters should be cautioned NOT to allow any measurements of anything-it would ruin the scam.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
Repeat of Milgram experiment
shows people are still willing to torture. "People weren't given an opportunity to ask if what they were doing is moral." Well, when are you given a chance to ask if something is moral? There is no stamp of unethical on things. You always have to be prepared.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
20 December 2008
Madoff Red Flags
Oh, my God. This is supposedly a November 2005 memo listing 29 red flags indicating Madoff is probably running a Ponzi scheme. It was sent to the SEC. Author unknown, since he or she withheld his or her name fearing retribution because he or she was a whistleblower.
HFoFs who promised due diligence are now denying it, checking with lawyers, etc.
Disgusting.
Brad Evans
HFoFs who promised due diligence are now denying it, checking with lawyers, etc.
Disgusting.
Brad Evans
"Rational" Economics
Greg Mankiw thinks that tax cuts or dropping money from helicopters would be more rational than the fiscal stimulus ideas of the current and future US administrations.
BUT, isn't the world rational? And if the world is rational, wouldn't fiscal stimulus be rational? Isn't everything for the best in this best of all possible worlds?
Dan Ariely says the world is not rational. I agree. Not rational.
Brad Evans
BUT, isn't the world rational? And if the world is rational, wouldn't fiscal stimulus be rational? Isn't everything for the best in this best of all possible worlds?
Dan Ariely says the world is not rational. I agree. Not rational.
Brad Evans
19 December 2008
18 December 2008
More on Nicola Horlick
by Megan McArdle. I think I read Ms. Horlick thought people were pilling on her because of her fame and because she's a woman.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
Blu-Ray movies
recommended by Megan McArdle. I don't agree with all her choices, but any list with Jeeves and Wooster is OK by me.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
Ford subsidy
BBC and Carpe Diem report that the State of Michigan gave Ford $300 million in Jan 07 to "preserve jobs." Now it is unclear whether jobs will be preserved. $300 million is $24,000 per worker.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
17 December 2008
16 December 2008
Mallorca
Freddy Shepherd to take over at 5 million GBP? To inject another 10 million if Mallorca stays up.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
15 December 2008
10 December 2008
Berwick Rangers
being bought by supporters, according to The Political Economy of Football:
"SUPPORTERS TAKEOVER AT BERWICK NEARS – 7/12/08
Berwick Rangers is a unique club as it is located in the English borders towns (which has had a convoluted and turbulent history) but plays in the Scottish League. The club has been through a difficult phase and negotiations for a takeover by a consortium headed by the Supporters' Trust have been protracted. Initial offers of £20,000 and £30,000 to secure a 51 per cent stake were rejected. The Supporters Trust has invested £30,000 in the club since 2003. It is thought that if the deal goes through current chairman Robert Wilson could invest in another club. One worry that has been eased is the survival of speedway team Berwick Bandits. It looked as if they might go under until a cut price offer from butcher John Anderson and Cornhill Village Shop owner Linda Waite was accepted by promoter Peter Waite. The Bandits are believed to pay £750 to the supporters trust for each meeting at Shielfield Park and that money is then passed to the club. At this level of football a sum of that size can make a difference."
Brad Evans
"SUPPORTERS TAKEOVER AT BERWICK NEARS – 7/12/08
Berwick Rangers is a unique club as it is located in the English borders towns (which has had a convoluted and turbulent history) but plays in the Scottish League. The club has been through a difficult phase and negotiations for a takeover by a consortium headed by the Supporters' Trust have been protracted. Initial offers of £20,000 and £30,000 to secure a 51 per cent stake were rejected. The Supporters Trust has invested £30,000 in the club since 2003. It is thought that if the deal goes through current chairman Robert Wilson could invest in another club. One worry that has been eased is the survival of speedway team Berwick Bandits. It looked as if they might go under until a cut price offer from butcher John Anderson and Cornhill Village Shop owner Linda Waite was accepted by promoter Peter Waite. The Bandits are believed to pay £750 to the supporters trust for each meeting at Shielfield Park and that money is then passed to the club. At this level of football a sum of that size can make a difference."
Brad Evans
Glasgow Rangers
for sale, according to The Political Economy of Football:
"
"
Items
| RANGERS SUPREMO AWAITS RIGHT OFFER – 7/12/08 Brad Evans |
Black market
Here's an opinion that, if you operate in an area that is illegal or might be illegal, you need to consider your risk of getting caught. For the black market, it's 1.5% according to this
article.
Brad Evans
article.
Brad Evans
The value of a senate seat?
I haven't heard what the bids were for Obama's old Senate seat. Blagojevich probably thought that the price of a Senate seat is pretty high. One way to estimate its worth is to look at close Senate races to see what's spent for a 50% chance at a seat.
The problem is that winning the seat in an election and purchasing it from Blagovich are two entirely different things and will change valuation. So, there's a difference depending on how the seat is obtained.
First, you've got to figure that Blagovich is shopping the Senate seat around. He's not just offering it to you. You could ask him if he's shopping it around, but will you get an honest answer?
So, if he's shopping it around, what are the chances that one of the people will turn him in? I think here you've got to assume he will be turned in.
Therefore, for the cost of a Senate seat, you've got to factor in the risk that the deal will be turned in and you either won't get the seat or you'll have it for a short time only. Will you face jail time? I don't know. It might be illegal to SELL a senate seat, but not illegal to BUY it. Or, they'll want to prosecute Blagojevich, so you could cut a deal: testify against him and get off. To me, I think that it's like prostitution. The Law wants the prostitute, but not the john. Will your name live in infamy? If you get the Senate seat, and then have to resign, YES. However, if you get the seat, but resign, you may still be eligible for some valuable things, like grade A health insurance for life for you and your family, and a retirement plan.
What Blagojevich could get for a Senate seat seems to me to be pretty low, and depends on the numbers you assign to the various factors above.
Brad Evans
The problem is that winning the seat in an election and purchasing it from Blagovich are two entirely different things and will change valuation. So, there's a difference depending on how the seat is obtained.
First, you've got to figure that Blagovich is shopping the Senate seat around. He's not just offering it to you. You could ask him if he's shopping it around, but will you get an honest answer?
So, if he's shopping it around, what are the chances that one of the people will turn him in? I think here you've got to assume he will be turned in.
Therefore, for the cost of a Senate seat, you've got to factor in the risk that the deal will be turned in and you either won't get the seat or you'll have it for a short time only. Will you face jail time? I don't know. It might be illegal to SELL a senate seat, but not illegal to BUY it. Or, they'll want to prosecute Blagojevich, so you could cut a deal: testify against him and get off. To me, I think that it's like prostitution. The Law wants the prostitute, but not the john. Will your name live in infamy? If you get the Senate seat, and then have to resign, YES. However, if you get the seat, but resign, you may still be eligible for some valuable things, like grade A health insurance for life for you and your family, and a retirement plan.
What Blagojevich could get for a Senate seat seems to me to be pretty low, and depends on the numbers you assign to the various factors above.
Brad Evans
09 December 2008
The dreaded vote of confidence...
after receiving the dreaded vote of confidence from Real Madrid's board, Schuster is out at Madrid. Juande Ramos is in.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
05 December 2008
04 December 2008
Newcastle fans may back Ashley...
I'd say only if he continues to stay out of sight, but this is according to the Supporters' Club.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
03 December 2008
Southampton...
posts a loss:
SAINTS POST BIG LOSS – 2/12/08
Southampton have announced a loss of £4.9m in the last financial year even after making £12.7m through player sales. Saints PLC chairman Rupert Lowe revealed that at one stage the player and coach wage bill was a huge 81 per cent of the club's turnover. Also in the Southampton Leisure Holdings plc figures for the year ending 30 June 2008 was the revelation that the Championship club's overdraft peaked at £6.3m during the summer. In a statement released to the Stock Exchange, Lowe, who along with football board chairman Michael Wilde didn't return to the club until May, laid the blame for the figures at the door of the previous board. He commented, 'Since returning in May, the current Board has worked tirelessly to bring our costs more into line with our dwindling revenues. We have done this throughout the Company where possible, but the nature of player contracts means that the process cannot be completed instantly. This work will continue, in discussion with both our loan note holder and Barclays Bank, on whose support we remain reliant.
Southampton is a classic example of what happens to a relegated Premiership club when the parachute payments run out, compunded by the need to service a long-term debt on the new St.Mary's Stadium. The club is reliant largely on young players, many produced through its Academy. Although recent results have been encouraging, relegation still remains a possibility. Not all fans welcomed the return of Rupert Lowe to the club and he noted, 'We are not currently strong enough to indulge the small, but vocal, negative elements of our support base and need everybody to pull together which we recover our financial strength. This is not a good time to be exposed to too much debt, particularly if revenues are likely to be adversely affected by an economic downturn.'
Brad
SAINTS POST BIG LOSS – 2/12/08
Southampton have announced a loss of £4.9m in the last financial year even after making £12.7m through player sales. Saints PLC chairman Rupert Lowe revealed that at one stage the player and coach wage bill was a huge 81 per cent of the club's turnover. Also in the Southampton Leisure Holdings plc figures for the year ending 30 June 2008 was the revelation that the Championship club's overdraft peaked at £6.3m during the summer. In a statement released to the Stock Exchange, Lowe, who along with football board chairman Michael Wilde didn't return to the club until May, laid the blame for the figures at the door of the previous board. He commented, 'Since returning in May, the current Board has worked tirelessly to bring our costs more into line with our dwindling revenues. We have done this throughout the Company where possible, but the nature of player contracts means that the process cannot be completed instantly. This work will continue, in discussion with both our loan note holder and Barclays Bank, on whose support we remain reliant.
Southampton is a classic example of what happens to a relegated Premiership club when the parachute payments run out, compunded by the need to service a long-term debt on the new St.Mary's Stadium. The club is reliant largely on young players, many produced through its Academy. Although recent results have been encouraging, relegation still remains a possibility. Not all fans welcomed the return of Rupert Lowe to the club and he noted, 'We are not currently strong enough to indulge the small, but vocal, negative elements of our support base and need everybody to pull together which we recover our financial strength. This is not a good time to be exposed to too much debt, particularly if revenues are likely to be adversely affected by an economic downturn.'
Brad
Bicyclists get campylobacter...
from sheep droppings in the mud on the course. They ate and didn't wash their hands first.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
01 December 2008
Leeds United...
reports a 4 million GBP profit. I can't find the annual report 2008 for Leeds United either, but they're not a publicly traded club.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
Sheffield United
posts a loss related to wages and relegation from Premier League. I can't find the 2008 Annual Report.
Brad Evans
Brad Evans
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